Morgan Stanley predicts continued USD weakness amid slowing growth and upcoming rate-cuts. US employment data alongside plenty of EU data this week will keep currency markets alive
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The USD tumbled, oil prices firmed, equity markets and US yields are mixed as Trump delayed EU tariffs. The USD dropped to its lowest level in almost two years after Trump's U-turn on EU tariffs increased market uncertainty, highlighting the President's volatile policymaking.
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With the US and the UK announcing interest rate decisions this week, all eyes will be on the comments regarding Forward Guidance as economies and bankers react to the ever-changing global power-shifts
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Trump’s comments hit the USD in illiquid trading, EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading at multi-year highs on the USD weakness. Plenty of data this week, with the ‘war of words being fought between the President and the US federal Reserve which is straining checks and balances in the US political system.
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USD volatility brings instability, as headlines jolt FX markets
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Rate cuts are widely expected across most developed economies - the varying pace of these cuts will affect currency moves globally. The world is also trying to prepare for the inauguration of President Trump on 20th Jan25 which will have impacts across the global economy and the structure of political governance in the USA.
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As the USD pulls back and the market takes a breath for Thanksgiving, central banks will have to carefully consider how trade ‘wars’ will impact domestic economies and policies in early 2025. FX will be greatly impacted, alongside economic growth paths
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ECB meeting to bring volatility to the Euro at tomorrow’s meeting
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The market expected 490,000 jobs to be added, but the actual number was 431,000.
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